Monday, February 18, 2013

New Positions for Married Couples

She Proposed... Now What?

Marriage combines the two most lethal human desires - emotion and money!  Below are some delightfully new positions for a newly married-couple-to-be to consider, most of much greater importance than a 1 hour (okay, I’ll be honest… 45 min) sweaty, naked romp on satin sheets!

Position #1:  Much has been made of America's 50% divorce rate, but experts say there is little statistical truth to it.  In fact, it seems this ‘statistic’ is mostly considered folklore.  According to the U.S. Census Bureau, a more accurate rate is 36%, which applies to both men and women between ages 50 and 69 who have been divorced at least once in their lives.  Good news?

So you want to get married… the odds of achieving marital bliss seem at least somewhat in your favor.

Position #2:  According to the website costofwedding – on average – U.S. couples spend $25,631 per wedding.  Spending $25,000 to throw a party for a few hours, allowing for a few members of your family and friends to celebrate your wedding, therefore seems to be the norm.  This is just plain stupid, especially since most young people cannot afford $25 K, and because many of their baby-boomer parents are already broke and not making good provision for their own retirement!

Based on some superficial Internet research, an average U.S. couple has a 57% chance of seeing their 15th wedding anniversary.  If they make it that far, most will reach "til death do us part."  $25,000 invested in boring Dow stocks at an average 10% annually (including reinvested dividends) would be worth almost $200,000!  Doesn’t that make more sense than a 4-hour wedding reception?

Fire the wedding planner and hire a financial planner instead!

Position #3:  Getting married, all on its own, is full of financial surprises.  For people considering marriage these days, including gay couples, there's a new one challenge: falling into the net of the Fed’s dreaded Alternative Minimum Tax (or AMT).

What's more, the AMT hits married couples particularly hard. For example, for the 2011 tax year 6.1% of married couples were required to pay the AMT (according to an estimate by the Tax Policy Center, a joint initiative of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution).  In addition, married couples are nearly six times as likely as single taxpayers to trigger the AMT.

The AMT hurts newlyweds for a simple reason:  The typical deduction limits for couples, are less than double those for single filers.  That bite often comes on top of the marriage penalty under the ordinary tax.

Most financial advisers will confirm that clients don’t even ask for an AMT calculation before planning a wedding – maybe it’s time to start!

I’ll conclude with this:

A recent “National Marriage Project” study conducted by the University of Virginia highlighted the following observations:
- Rising consumer debt after a couple's wedding contributes to the instability of unions among newlyweds.
- Couples with assets of $100,000 or more have lower divorce rates than those with less money.
- Couples who reported disagreeing about finances more than once a week were 30 percent more likely to divorce than couples who reported disagreeing about finances only a few times a month.

Best of luck and success in finding your own most comfortable and satisfying position, and married bliss happily ever after!

Disclosure: the author is long on long-term marriage, having enjoyed more than 27 years of consistently good, positive investment return.  Here's wishing the same for you, complemented by financial freedom and security included in your own happily-ever-after investment!  

Monday, February 11, 2013

What's Wrong with Apple?

AAPL

Apple Inc:  The world's largest corporation by market valuation, one of the most recognizable brand names on the planet, a corporation that generates about $150MM in sales every 10 minutes, a company that revolutionized already existing devices that were invented or created by less imaginative designers, a corporation that benefited for having one of the greatest marketers-in-chief and creative geniuses we had even seen (Steve Jobs)… and one could go on, and on, and on… 

In Dec ‘12 Apple held about $137B cash, which is equal to about $145/share. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately for others), about $94B of that cash ($99/share) is held offshore.  Offshore cash is not readily available for sharing with shareholders via e.g. dividends, buybacks, domestic acquisitions, etc.  If Apple were to repatriate the offshore cash, they would be liable for taxes in the range of about 30%.

Domestic cash-on-hand can be applied as mentioned above.  This portion equaled about $43B (or $46/share) in December.  Added to Apple’s near term, predictable U.S. cash flow, this would be sufficient to fund Apple's $10B stock-repurchase program and current 2% yield. 

The PC market was likely Apple’s foundation for being viewed as an extraordinary innovator.  Cool factor achieved with the MacBook!

Apple’s incredible success with then new, mega-popular iPod (mid-2000’s) followed their success enjoyed with revolutionized laptops.  No-one wanted to be seen with another MP3 music device and dominant portable music mainstays, like Sony, virtually disappeared almost instantly.  Today, Apple’s fortunes are closely tied to their successful iPhone sales, and – albeit to a somewhat lesser extent – the iPad.

For investors it's interesting to note that Morningstar has a $600 fair market value estimate on the stock price that is currently trading at around $480/share.

Apple Bulls would claim that:
- The smartphone market is growing so fast... even if Apple grew at the market rate the company would enjoy great revenue growth
- The iPad has been Apple's fastest growing product ever, even eclipsing success achieved with the iPod and iPhone

And the Bears may say that:
- Short product cycles cause intense competition, and more competitors are raining on Apple’s parade, more frequently... with products as good, or even better
- Apple has to rely on partnerships with other technology providers like Google, Facebook, Samsung and others, often referred to as Apple’s frenemies
- Many people believe that Apple - without Steve Jobs - suddenly looks quite ordinary, despite its girth as the largest company in the world by market capitalization. 

To this last point above, there can be little doubt that Steve Jobs' passing was a blow to Apple Inc.  He was a one-of-a-kind leader, business master, marketer, perfectionist and the revolutionary behind the creativity and innovation, that is Apple.

What’s wrong with Apple?

Very little, it seems, whatever the current stock price!

Disclosure: No position