Monday, October 14, 2013

Trading The #CR And Debt Ceiling

Those who follow my blog will know by now that I don’t take investment losses kindly!

My investment methodology is quite simple:
(1) Uncover well managed, undervalued (well priced), publicly traded company stocks to buy, and
(2) Don’t lose money!

# 1 above is quite easy.  Finding good companies to invest in, during a bull market – as we have enjoyed over the past couple of years – is relatively simple. 

Most blue-chip stocks showed good gains.  For example, scanning the Dow (the index of 30 large stocks known as the Dow Jones), one will easily notice that as of today, the index has returned +17% YTD.  In theory then, one could have simply invested in this index of 30 quality equities, for a solid return of 17% booked this year.

Simple?

I sincerely hope that your mutual fund investments (in your 401k) outperformed the Dow?!

Managing # 2 above – not losing money – may prove a little trickier, especially when the politicians decide to wield extraordinary, unpredictable influence on market returns.  Let’s face it, some of our elected leaders can’t even read, speak or write their first language fluently, and yet we have to rely on them for economic reform and policy, and fiscal management!

Many of my previous posts cover technology tools, like trailing stops (a personal favorite), stop loss orders, managing emotion, controlling greed, etc.  However, I am very confident that any technology available to help you control investor emotion – and therefore the risk of investment loss – would be a good thing!

DO NOT rely entirely (or only) on a financial advisor to protect your assets and/or gains.  This simply isn’t a fair or reasonable expectation.  You’re likely just one of many clients that he/she has to manage; your investment account balance is probably more important to you than what it is to them; and they have already asked you to sign an agreement to acknowledge and agree that all investments carry the risk of loss… meaning that it’s not their fault if they lose your money!

I trade often; buying frequently, selling occasionally.  My typical cap on investment losses is pegged at 3%, but during high volatility – like a government shutdown and debt ceiling debate – I may move to 5% or greater.

I took some hits commensurate with my sell orders on $ABBV, $BA, $CRM and $V.  Although I lost money on these four positions, they’re all good stocks, and I’ll buy them back in a dip… once the respective wash sale periods (30 days) have lapsed.

However, other long positions in my trading account are all in the money.  And I can’t lose because my gains exceed my stop-loss prices (i.e. the prices that they would sell for – if they do – are all greater than my respective purchase prices). 

Simply put, by way of an example… if I am now up 5% on $BLK and have a 3% stop-loss sell order plugged in; I will generate a 2% gain if I were e.g. to sell tomorrow.  Not bad for a 5-day position!  Are you making 1-2% every single trading week?

Other longs include $ACN, $AMTD, $BP, $C, $CLB, $FB, $GE, $HD, $PFE, $QCOM and $WFC. 

By combining methodology numbers 1 & 2 above, I try to achieve a 1% return every trading day.  That’s my target.  It’s a very lofty goal, causing me to fall short every year by a long way…  However, I manage to outperform a typical mutual fund manager easily on annual returns/gains booked. 

You can too, it’s not rocket science.  An hour a day may be too much, just check in regularly!

Disclosure: all positions as described above

Who Is Jamie Dimon?


James “Jamie” Dimon is Chairman, President and CEO of JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), one of the four largest banks in the U.S.  (The ‘other three’:  Bank of America, Wells Fargo & Citigroup).

He was born to Theodore and Themis Dimon in New York City on March 13, 1956.  His paternal grandfather was a Greek immigrant; also a banker, from Athens.  Dimon has a fraternal twin brother, Ted.

He majored in Psychology and Economics at Tufts University.  He then worked in management consulting for a couple of years, before enrolling at Harvard Business School for an MBA (awarded 1982).  During Harvard summer vacations he worked at Goldman Sachs.  After graduating, he joined Sandy Weill as an assistant at American Express ($AXP).  Dimon's father, Theodore, was an executive vice president at American Express at the time.

Weill left American Express for Commercial Credit in 1985.  Dimon followed and was appointed as CFO.  During a series of M&A transactions around 1998, Dimon and Weill succeeded in forming the largest financial services conglomerate internationally, today known as Citigroup.  However, Weill ended up firing Dimon in November 1998 (Kellogg School of Management interviews, 2006).

In March 2000, Dimon was appointed as CEO of Bank One, the nation's fifth largest bank. When JPMorgan Chase acquired Bank One in July 2004, Dimon became president and chief operating officer of the combined company.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

“Buffett… personally owns shares of J.P. Morgan and applauded Dimon’s shares ideas on capital management.  And today, Alan Schwartz, the executive chairman of Guggenheim Partners and the man who handed Bear Stearns over to Dimon in that seminal deal, praised Dimon’s integrity.  Speaking on CNBC, Schwartz said the discussions during those turbulent times included many promises from Dimon.  They weren’t contractual obligations, just his word.  Even as things continued to get worse, and the banks found themselves in a blizzard of problems and bad press, Dimon didn’t back down from any single promise Schwartz said.  “His word was more important,” Schwartz added.”

But, The Huffington Post had this to say about Dimon:

“JPMorgan Chase has become, in essence, the poster child for bad Wall Street behavior, and it will be made to pay for having earned that mantle.  Even more unfortunately for the bank, it has no one to blame for this mess but itself -- and its imperious CEO, Jamie Dimon.

… there was very likely a massive breach of fiduciary duty under Dimon's watch, and a reckless disregard for good corporate behavior. That in itself is enough to cast serious doubt on Dimon's ability to lead the bank into the future, and necessitates his immediate departure.”

Love him, or hate him?

While no-one would probably question Dimon’s status as poster child for Wall Street, I cannot agree with the Huffington Post blogger (above) adding the suffix “behavior” to the preceding statement. 

The grouping together – as “Wall Street” – of unrelated, individual people and/or parties, and then collectively blaming this amorphous group – that includes tens of thousands of innocent, hard-working people – for the “bad behavior” of few… shows a complete lack of objectivity, and borders on sensationalist reporting.

Disclosure: no positions